If You Knew, What Would You Do?

Hi to all,

One of the questions I like to ask the executives I work with is "If you knew, what would you do?" For example, if you knew, in September 2008, when the banking/credit crisis hit, that the economy would be weak for the next 6 months or more, and that credit would be hard to get, what would you do (have done)? Looking at your situation today, some answers would become apparent:
"I would have gotten some cash from our $100,000 credit line from the bank, because now they won't lend us any money."
"I would have reduced my prices by 10%, so I would have increased my sales for a few months before things got really bad."
"I would not have hired those new people, who I now might need to lay off".

So one result of asking this question is to find out how prepared an organization is to change their "business as usual" approach when external conditions look like they may change.

A second result of the question "If you knew, what would you do?" is more forward looking. It relates to potential investments in getting better, faster, more comprehensive, and/or more insightful information with which to make business decisions. While looking at the trends of an organization's historical performance, questions that can be asked are as follows:

"What would you do if you knew, over the next year:
- That you could sell 20% more of your stuff by promoting it to a new customer segment or channel?
- That your costs would increase 10% due to commodity price increases?
- That a major competitor would be going bankrupt?
- That the government would be "supporting" your industry through stimulus funding?
- That the government would be "overseeing" your industry through new regulation?
- That the government would be "threatening the funding" of your industry through budget cuts or changes in tax policy?"

It might cost some time and money to get the information to know if these things are likely to occur. If knowing this information would result in you making a change to your business plans, it might make sense to make an investment in "finding out". However, if you reflect on these issues and conclude that knowing this information wouldn't change your approach, then it wouldn't make sense to invest in information gathering and analysis around these issues.

Clearly, today's business leaders need to think about how to answer the question "If you knew, what would you do?". Foresight below the "tip of the iceberg" will be a key skill in leading an organization to profitability and success in these turbulent times.

Or, you may be faced looking back at what happened and lamenting like Bob Seeker did in his song Against the Wind from 1980 - "I wish I didn't know now what I didn't know then".